Conventional wisdom dictates you should wait to draft a defense, but the times have changed, and you don’t have to be afraid to pull the trigger sooner.
One way we can quantify the value proposition of each player/team selected is by using the value based drafting system, which calculates the difference between each player’s projected fantasy point total and the point total of a baseline player at the same position gives us a VBD number, which can then be compared across positions. The higher the number, the more valuable that player is going to be.
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For example, in 2015, the top fantasy-scoring defense was the Denver Broncos (182 fantasy points in ESPN leagues), followed by the Kansas City Chiefs (162 fantasy points) and Arizona Cardinals (157 fantasy points). Their VBD values would be plus-91, plus-71, and plus-66, respectively. Todd Gurley, the 16th best player overall in fantasy leagues and No. 4 at the running back position last season, had a VBD value of plus-66. A.J. Green, who finished in the top 10 among wide receivers, had a VBD value of plus-63. Both inferior to each of the top 3 defenses.
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Some would argue that because you typically need to start more than one running back and wide receiver, not including the flex position, skill players have a higher value. And that’s true, but David Dodds, one of the earliest proponents of the VBD philosophy, addresses that by introducing a multiplier to compensate for the difference between absolute need and relative need.
“With your first-round pick, absolute need and relative need are the same. You need all positions equally. But as the draft continues, this is not the case as you start to fill out your roster. If you start two running backs and you have taken two running backs with your first three picks, it stands to reason that your immediate need is likely not at running back. You’ll likely want to veer from your VBD list if it’s showing your next pick should be a running back.”
If we can agree that the top defense in 2016 will provide a VDB of plus-70 — slightly less than the average of the top 3 defenses in 2015 — even after you adjust for need, a defensive selection should still be worth more than a third wide receiver if you already have drafted two in a league that requires both in your starting lineup.
Here’s how it would look in a live draft:
Let’s say you are picking third in a 12-team, standard-scoring league (to keep things simple, no flex), thus guaranteeing you at least one of the big 3 receivers: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham, Jr. You follow up that pick with another wide receiver and then two running backs, so a good part of your starting roster is complete. Then, based on the adjustment chart, you would lower all VBD values at these two positions to 80 percent of their original value, while leaving the other positions unadjusted.
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The best values of the fifth round would be quarterback Russell Wilson (plus-53.6 VBD), tight end Greg Olsen (plus-41.6 VBD), and running back Matt Jones (adjusted VBD of plus-35.1). But remember, a top 3 defense in 2015 provided a higher value than any of these choices, thus making it a more lucrative pick. Maybe you see more value in Wilson or another quarterback — that’s fine, but even a sixth-round selection of a defense still makes sense despite it being three rounds earlier than what we are seeing in mock drafts around the country.
We know the value will be there. The challenge is figuring out which defense is going to be among the top units. And given the volatility of defenses, that’s easier said than done.
The Seahawks yielded the fewest points per game (17.3) and held opposing quarterbacks to a 79.6 passer rating last season, sixth best in the NFL. Plus, they weren’t a very good pass-rushing team — they ranked 14th in adjusted sack rate, which adjusts sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt for down, distance, and opponent — nor grabbed an abnormally high amount of interceptions (14 vs. a league average of 13.6). They should be among the best defenses this season, but probably not the best.
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Other picks for the No. 1 defense include the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings.
Denver’s defense was historically good in 2015. The Broncos were the top team per Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and have two fearsome pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, who combined for 125 total sacks, hits, and hurries. Cornerbacks Aqib Talib, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby each ranked in the top 21 at the position for yards allowed per cover snap. And the defensive line was a top-5 unit at stuffing opposing running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage (24 percent).
The Cardinals return a formidable lineup that includes Tyrann Mathieu, who the game charters at Pro Football Focus consider “in the running for the title of the NFL’s best defensive back,” and Patrick Peterson, who led the league in yards allowed per cover snap (0.53).
At least one expert has the Vikings rated as the top defensive unit in fantasy football, but at least one other has them ranked No. 18, making them a true wild card for the top spot. They ranked 10th in adjusted sack rate (7.1 percent) last season and were just outside the top 10 for rushing yards allowed per carry (4.3).
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The Carolina Panthers are currently the fourth defense off the board in mock drafts, but their league-leading 24 interceptions — worth two points each in fantasy scoring — could be tough to replicate since research by Football Outsiders has shown they are “determined by lucky bounces and bad circumstances about as often as they are by player skill.” In addition, cornerback Josh Norman, who led the league in passer rating against (55.1), is now with Washington, perhaps reducing the effectiveness of the Panthers’ secondary.
A quick glance at Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average rankings over the past four seasons shows that the best defense has ranked at least in the top-4 the year before, so that, too, expects Denver, Carolina, Arizona and Seattle to be among the best. But only twice in the past decade has the top team been ranked No. 1 or No. 2 the year before, so perhaps we can discount the chances of Denver and Carolina producing the most fantasy points this season and lean more heavily towards Arizona and Seattle.
Either way, all four figure to be gone by the end of the 10th round, so if you are truly looking to get the most value on your roster, don’t be afraid to reach up and grab one a little bit sooner.
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